A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.     

基于非线性响应函数和蒙特卡洛模拟的滇池流域污染负荷削减情景分析

为定量了解滇池外海水质对流域污染负荷削减率的响应变化程度,并评估相关决策的潜在风险,在长期的水质模拟结果基础之上,本文使用内嵌非线性响应函数的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,在2个不确定性水平下（5%和10%的变异范围）分析滇池外海为达到3个水质目标情景（Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类和Ⅴ类）的污染负荷削减及其不确定性.模型结果表明,在2种不确定性水平...     

Soil Properties Predict Plant Community Development of Mitigation Wetlands Created in the Virginia Piedmont,USA

The study investigated vegetative and soil properties in four created mitigation wetlands, ranging in age from three to ten years, all created in the Virginia Piedmont. Vegetation attributes included percent cover, richness (S), diversity (H′), floristic quality assessment index (FQAI), prevalence index (PI), and productivity [i.e., peak above-ground biomass (AGB) and below-ground biomass]. Soil attributes included soil organic matter (SOM), gravimetric soil moisture (GSM), pH, and bulk density (D_b) for the top 10 cm. Species dominance (e.g., Juncus effusus, Scirpus cyperinus, Arthraxon hispidus) led to a lack of differences in vegetative attributes between sites. However, site-based differences were found for GSM, pH, and SOM (P < 0.001). Soil attributes were analyzed using Euclidean cluster analysis, resulting in four soil condition (SC) categories where plots were grouped based on common attribute levels (i.e., SC1 > SC2 > SC3 > SC4, trended more to less developed). When vegetation attributes were compared between SC groups, greater SOM, lower D_b, more circumneutral pH, and higher GSM, all indicative of maturation, were associated with higher H′ (P < 0.05), FQAI (P < 0.05), and total and volunteer percent cover (P < 0.05), and lower AGB (P < 0.001), PI (P < 0.05), and seeded percent cover (P < 0.05). The outcome of the study shows that site age does not necessarily equate with site development with soil and vegetation developmental rates varying both within and among sites. The inclusion of soil attributes in post-construction monitoring should be required to enhance our understanding and prediction of developmental trajectory of created mitigation wetlands.     

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model for TMDL development of Lake Fuxian, China

Lake Fuxian is the largest deep freshwater lake in China. Although its average water quality meets Class I of the China National Water Quality Standard (CNWQS), i.e., GB3838-2002, monitoring data indicate that the water quality approaches the Class II threshold in some areas. Thus it is urgent to reduce the watershed load through the total maximum daily load (TMDL) program. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed for Lake Fuxian, simulating flow circulation and pollutant fate and transport. The model development process consists of several steps, including grid generation, initial and boundary condition configurations, and model calibration processes. The model accurately reproduced the observed water surface elevation, spatiotemporal variations in temperature, and total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentrations, suggesting a reasonable numerical representation of the prototype system for further TMDL analyses. The TMDL was calculated using two interpretations of the water quality standards for Class I of the CNWQS based on the maximum instantaneous surface and annual average surface water concentrations. Analysis of the first scenario indicated that the TN, TP and COD loads should be reduced by 66%, 68% and 57%, respectively. Water quality was the highest priority; however, local economic development and cost feasibility for load reduction can pose significant issues. In the second interpretation, the model results showed that, under the existing conditions, the average water quality meets the Class I standard and therefore load reduction is unnecessary. Future studies are needed to conduct risk and cost assessments for realistic decision-making.     

Evaluation of a photochemical grid model using estimates of concentration probability density functions

A method for evaluating photochemical grid models based on the estimation of the probability density function (PDF) of the variations in ozone concentrations is described and demonstrated. It is assumed that the ozone concentration PDF is determined from 100 Monte Carlo uncertainty runs based on uncertainties in photochemical grid model input variables. The exercise involves the Urban Airshed Model with Variable grid (UAM-V) as applied to the July 1995 Ozone Transport Assessment Group episode in the eastern US. The focus is on the distribution of model residuals (observed concentration minus model-predicted ensemble mean concentration) for 66 ozone monitors on the OTAG domain. It is concluded that the distribution of observed model residuals is within the 95% range of expected uncertainty, suggesting that the model is performing adequately.     

Determination of selected fate and aquatic toxicity characteristics of acrylic acid and a series of acrylic esters

Acrylic acid, methyl acrylate, ethyl acrylate, and butyl acrylate are commercially important and widely used materials. This paper reports the results of a series of fate and aquatic toxicity studies. The mobility in soil of acrylic acid and its esters ranged from 'medium' to 'very high'. Calculated bioconcentration factors ranged from 1 to 37, suggesting a low bioconcentration potential. Acrylic acid and methyl acrylate showed limited biodegradability in the five day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) test, while ethyl acrylate and butyl acrylate were degraded easily (77% and 56%, respectively). Using the OECD method 301D 28-d closed bottle test, degradability for acrylic acid was 81% at 28 days, while the acrylic esters ranged from 57% to 60%. Acrylic acid degraded rapidly to carbon dioxide in soil (t1/2 < 1 day). Toxicity tests were conducted using freshwater and marine fish, invertebrates, and algae. Acrylic acid effect concentrations for fish and invertebrates ranged from 27 to 236 mg/l. Effect concentrations (LC50 or EC50) for fish and invertebrates using methyl acrylate, ethyl acrylate, and butyl acrylate ranged from 1.1 to 8.2 mg/l. The chronic MATC for acrylic acid with Daphnia magna was 27 mg/l based on length and young produced per adult reproduction day and for ethyl acrylate was 0.29 mg/l based on both the reproductive and growth endpoints. Overall these studies show that acrylic acid and the acrylic esters studied can rapidly biodegrade, have a low potential for persistence or bioaccumulation in the environment, and have low to moderate toxicity.     

An examination of the physical properties,fate, ecotoxicity and potential environmental risks for a series of propylene glycol ethers

Propylene glycol ethers (PGEs) are comprised of mono-, di- and tri-PGEs and several of their acetate esters. The nature of the range of applications that use PGEs suggests that there is a potential for both intentional and unintentional entry of the materials into the environment. Selected physical/chemical properties, fate characteristics, aquatic toxicity data and calculated environmental concentrations were used to assess potential risks from the manufacture, handling, use, and disposal of PGEs. In general, the PGEs are low to moderately volatile, have high aqueous solubilities, low octanol-water partition coefficients (Kow), and bioconcentration factor values of <10, which indicate they are unlikely to accumulate in aquatic food chains. Both abiotic and biological degradation processes reduce environmental concentrations of PGEs. In air, vapor-phase PGEs react with photo-chemically produced hydroxyl radicals and have half-lives ranging from 5.5 to 34.4 h. A variety of ready and inherent biodegradation test methods, as well as tests that simulate biodegradation in wastewater treatment plants, surface water and soil have been conducted on PGEs. Significant aerobic biodegradation was generally observed, with a range of biodegradation half-lives on the order of 5-25 d. Acute aquatic toxicity studies with PGEs resulted in LC50 values ranging from approximately >100 to >20,000 mg/l for freshwater fish, the pelagic invertebrate Daphnia magna, green algae Selenastrum capricornutum (now called Pseudokirchneriella capricornutum) and bacteria. Level 3 multi-media modeling (EQC model of Mackay) was used to simulate regional-scale concentrations of PGEs in air, soil, water, and sediment. Toxicity thresholds were then compared with regional-scale water, soil and sediment concentrations to determine hazard quotients. Based upon this analysis, concentrations of PGEs are unlikely to pose adverse risks to the environment.     

Investigation of unrecognized former secondary lead smelting sites: confirmation by historical sources and elemental ratios in soil

Twelve suspected former secondary lead smelting sites were investigated. Ten of the sites were confirmed to be former secondary lead smelters or lead works by historical fire insurance maps and contemporaneous metal industry trade directories. At eight sites sampled, the ratio Sb:Pb was closer to ratios from 10 known lead smelting sites than were the As:Pb and Cd:Pb ratios. Data from the 10 known lead smelting sites showed that the Sb:Pb ratio is most characteristic of secondary lead smelting sites. This is because the primary alloy smelted at such sites is antimonial lead. Lead contamination at the eight sites investigated here can be attributed At least in part to the former smelters because of the association between Sb and Pb.